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Submitted by: Paul Hu
Another new high this year despite the U.S. stock market, investors are generally optimistic about the prospects for U.S. economic recovery. However, the latest U.S. economic data were mixed, there are many economic outlook remains uncertain. More analysts began to worry about, following the real estate bubble burst, the local debt crisis may be the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy.
U.S. property market into a double-dip recession
Blizzard does not seem to affect the American consumer’s shopping enthusiasm, according to MasterCard’s consultants SPENDINGPULSE latest data, this November 5 to December 24, excluding auto sales, U.S. retail sales rose 5.5% , hit the biggest gain in 5 years.
However, the retail industry has not heard the good news to promote a further rise in consumer confidence. U.S. industry research organization The Conference Board released data on 28, December consumer confidence index fell to 52.5, showing U.S. consumers remain cautious about the economic situation. The index of 90 or more is considered state of the economy is healthy growth. IHG Global Insight chief U.S. financial economist at Shell, said repair, consumer confidence levels are still far from normal, you may want to return to normal until 2012.
In addition to retail, the U.S. real estate market is still not out of the woods. U.S. Standard & Poor’s Case – Shiller Home Price Index showed that in October this year, house price index in 20 U.S. cities fell 1.3% over the previous month, down 0.7% over September. U.S. housing price data provider Zillow Inc that the current U.S. real estate market, supply exceeds demand, prices will fall next year, more than 5%, until the bottom until the second half.
Well-known American economist, the “Dr. Doom” Roubini known that the U.S. real estate market is in a double-dip recession, house prices can only continue down the U.S. economy will not double-dip recession. Some analysts said that despite the higher than expected holiday retail sales growth, but consumer confidence fell, house prices continue to fall, oil prices also shot up, investors are expected for next year is not over-optimistic about the economic recovery.
Congress passed this month, the Obama administration’s tax cut plan, the world’s leading rating agency Moody’s warned that if the U.S. government deficit and debt levels continue to rise sharply, Moody’s will consider in the next 12 to 18 months United States sovereign credit rating lowered. According to Moody’s estimates that Obama’s tax cuts would reduce the U.S. Treasury 700 billion to 900 billion U.S. dollars in revenue.
Local investors worried about the debt crisis
U.S. Federal Government’s high level of debt has been a great concern in the market, where the debt crisis of the United States began to worry investors.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the U.S. government funding to the states a lot to make it out of trouble. But with the state government deficit, the lack of federal funds to fill the gap, debt has become increasingly serious. The first two years of economic recession led to sharp drop in local taxes, social security and other expenses increased, which makes some of the already debt-ridden local government matters worse, its solvency is questionable. California state government Zengyin fiscal emergency declared in huge deficit.
Whitney, the famous Wall Street analyst recently predicted that, following the real estate bubble burst, the local debt crisis may be the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy next year, the local municipal bond default by the United States will be a large number of outbreaks, involving an amount of up to hundreds of billions of dollars to the size of nearly 3 trillion U.S. municipal bond market impact.
“Bond King” Gross said it is closely following the trend of U.S. municipal bonds, these bonds yield is much higher than U.S. Treasuries, but it is worth noting that local government fiscal problems the U.S. has reached a similar level of the euro area.
About the Author: My name is Paul Hu, I am a editor from himfr.com, and what I do is just to prmote a free online trade platform. http://www.himfr.com/ contain a great deal of information about
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